Oil, Rubber & Logistics Costs Drive Inflation

Recently, both domestic and international markets have simultaneously entered a new round of price adjustments, with cost pressures accumulating and exhibiting systemic, transmissive, and widespread characteristics. The sharp rise in petroleum-based raw material prices, the high-level fluctuations in the natural rubber market, and the dramatic increase in logistics costs are the three driving forces behind this round of price increases.

This price adjustment is not a fluctuation in a single sector, but rather a chain reaction involving multiple key links in the chemical, rubber product, and logistics transportation industries, exhibiting the typical characteristics of "concentrated price increases, rapid transmission, and widespread impact."

All relevant data is based on recent real-time market monitoring and publicly available market information, ensuring the content's authenticity and validity, and possessing strong timeliness and reference value.

Petroleum-based raw materials, as fundamental core raw materials in the upstream of the chemical industry chain, are the primary driving force behind this round of price increases, with their prices surging. Affected by the continued escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, international crude oil prices have risen rapidly.

The price of crude oil futures contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at 498.2 yuan/barrel on March 2nd and continued to rise, closing at 771.8 yuan/barrel on March 9th, a single-day increase of 112.1 yuan/barrel, representing a significant short-term increase.

Geopolitically, Iraqi crude oil production was also suppressed, deepening market concerns about crude oil supply and further pushing up the central price level. The rise in oil prices quickly transmitted to downstream petroleum-based feedstocks, with prices of derivatives such as plastics and chemical fibers rising in tandem.

Although price spreads at large domestic refining projects fluctuated slightly, the overall price level shifted significantly upward, placing direct and sustained cost pressure on midstream and downstream processing enterprises, which is difficult to fully absorb internally in the short term.

The fluctuating rise in natural rubber prices further intensified cost pressures. Currently, domestic and international natural rubber producing areas have generally entered the seasonal off-season, leading to a continued contraction in supply and supporting high rubber prices.

According to market monitoring, since March, the price of SCRWF natural rubber in Shandong Province has been approximately 16,700 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous month. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main rubber contract closed at 16,895 yuan/ton on March 9th, a slight pullback from previous highs, but still within a high range.

Overseas, natural rubber exports from core producing regions such as Thailand and Côte d'Ivoire have declined year-on-year. Thailand's total natural rubber exports in January were 351,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, further exacerbating the global supply shortage.

Meanwhile, post-Chinese New Year sentiment spilled over into the chemical sector, leading to a significant rise in synthetic rubber prices. This drove natural rubber futures prices above pre-holiday highs. Although the spot market's follow-up price increases were somewhat weak, the supply-demand dynamics have kept natural rubber prices rigidly upward, directly pushing up production costs for downstream industries such as tires and rubber products.

Soaring logistics costs constitute a third layer of pressure, and are showing a normalized upward trend due to the continued impact of geopolitical conflicts. The disruption of the Red Sea shipping route has disrupted approximately 30% of global container trade, forcing shipping giants to detour around the Cape of Good Hope, extending voyages by about 40% and significantly increasing fuel consumption per voyage. Coupled with persistently high international oil prices, shipping costs have risen rapidly.

Data shows that freight rates for 40-foot containers from China to Europe surged from the $1200-$1400 range at the end of 2025 to $3500-$5000 in early March, an increase of 200% to 300%. War risk insurance premiums have increased by 300% to 400%, and shipping companies are levying emergency conflict surcharges as high as $4000 per container, further pushing up overall logistics costs.

Domestically, rising diesel prices have exacerbated freight cost pressures. Fuel costs account for approximately 30% of the total operating costs of logistics companies. The minimum cost per kilometer for six-axle trucks has reached 4.3 yuan, and on some routes, freight rates are lower than costs.

The survival pressure on small and medium-sized logistics companies continues to increase, and the rising logistics costs are gradually being passed on to end goods, affecting everything from daily necessities to industrial products to varying degrees.

The combined pressures from petroleum-based raw materials, natural rubber, and logistics costs have propelled both domestic and international markets into a new round of price adjustments. Geopolitical conflicts, seasonal supply contractions, and global supply chain disruptions are intertwined, making it difficult to alleviate cost pressures in the short term. It is expected that prices for related industry products will remain relatively strong.

For midstream and downstream enterprises, it is necessary to proactively address cost fluctuations by optimizing supply chain structures and improving operational efficiency to enhance their resilience. From an overall market perspective, this round of cost-driven adjustments will push the industry chain into a new phase of supply and demand rebalancing, which warrants continued attention.